Jan Kallberg, a non-resident senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said by the winter, Ukraine may be able to hinder supply lines with artillery and create a catastrophe for Russia in Crimea.
“The supply line for the land bridge and the Kerch [Strait] bridge also have to feed the Crimean population, where the Russians want to maintain some sort of normality,” he said. “If their logistics chain starts to crumble … you will see a massive exodus.”
Kallberg explained that could turn Crimea into a “competition between military needs and civilian” resources.
“And Russia doesn’t want that, because it’s very much saying that they’re losing,” he said. “That’s going to be a really tricky equation for the Russian leadership.”