Category Archives: NATO

Plan Red: Three Days to Paldiski

//This is my original text before editing//

European newspapers have shared a German assessment of what a Russian assault on NATO and the Baltics could look like. If you want to understand your adversary, put yourself in his shoes, and so I did. I decided I would start war planning for the assault immediately. The Kremlin loves a mighty name on a war plan, like the Americans who spend a lot of energy and time to come up with the most appealing name for an operation, even the later failed ones, so I spun on the old Soviet plan “Seven days to the Rhine.” My plan: “Plan Red – Three Days to Paldiski” – was a success as soon as the Leningrad MD heard about it.

When I started to write the plan, I needed to list the assumptions that laid the foundation for the plan.

My five grander general assumptions are straightforward.

First, most Western European Armed Forces are in a grave state of dismantled readiness and have limited abilities. Even significant forces such as Germany, France, and Great Britain might talk big and politically market their rearmament programs, but at the actual units, the readiness is still as it was ten years ago. The first significant NATO formation that arrived at the Lithuanian border would be Polish after three days, which was the cut-off for the plan, but the German and other European NATO forces would not be seen for at least ten to fifteen days. The Western European NATO members are in a state of denial of their readiness, living in an imaginary world where the recent years’ talk of rearmament is already in place. One example is Gotland, which is still only defended by two mechanized companies and some Home Guard. The difference between imagined readiness and actual readiness forms our opportunity.

Second, since the Cold War, the fear of nuclear arms in Western Europe has built up to the degree that the political debate does not even talk about these weapons anymore. At least in the 1970s and 1980s, there was a discussion. Added to the silence about nuclear arms is the almost eighty-year-old geopolitical equilibrium where nuclear arms are not used and are seen as theatrical instruments to portray strategic deterrence. If we, the Russians, use nuclear arms it would send shock waves not only through the political and military leadership and systems, but also create chaos on the financial market at a global scale. The attack on the World Trade Center at 9-11 was not only a deadly event, it created total mayhem on the global stock markets, and pushed the US into recession. It might not be nice, but it serves the Russian interest well.

Third, I assess that any NATO “trip wire” units in the Baltics will be passive. These units do not have artillery, logistics, medical support, or heavy weapons to engage a Russian spearhead. So if we, the Russian army, circumvent these NATO units, there will be no interference during our operational windows during the first three days. The “trip wire” units will not attack but hold the territory where they are stationed, and we will drive around it. Finland will not have time to mobilize or push units towards Russia, nor will Finland cross over the Russian border, fully aware of the risk of a nuclear response. Russia does not need to dedicate units beyond the regular staffing along the Finnish border.

Fourth, we are better off with a smaller force and no sign on the surface of what we are up to than large troop movements, hybrid warfare, loud propaganda, and psychological operations. These actions will only alert NATO. We can achieve the same goal with a regiment that needs a division if NATO starts to understand our intentions. We will not share our intentions with the government or foreign entities; even China will be unaware. In the assault on Ukraine, there was almost no surprise; we ran into massive resistance early.

Fifth, We, the Russians, will create a false illusion that there is a political solution, a settlement and that we are open to realizing that peace is better than conflict. The default belief in a political, diplomatic solution will slow the Western response, and create political division and indecisiveness in critical junctures. From the first armored column that passes the Estonian border, we will use all diplomatic channels to send this message of confusion and delay – that there is a political, diplomatic solution. The numerous governments that form NATO will lose valuable time discussing a diplomatic solution that never existed – but it serves our Russian objectives.

The actual plan is simple.

PLAN RED: THREE DAYS TO PALDISKI
Day one, a missile barrage on high-value targets opens up the engagement. One echelon of armor, attack helicopters, and rocket artillery supported by rocket artillery push through the Northern Estonia – Narva, Reval (Tallinn) to Paldiski. Batallion-size naval infantry land in Reval (Tallinn) harbor simultaneously.
In the South, another echelon pushes to Kaliningrad Oblast through Lithuania and immediately turns South to defend against NATO troops coming from Poland. Rear forces mop up the Lithuanian defenses and resistance in the days to come.
Latvia is ignored and sits in a Kurland Kessel, the Courland pocket, and the Latvian army does not have the means to attack in any direction.
A high-altitude nuclear EMP weapon detonated on international waters knock out installations on Gotland, including Visby airport, and a battalion-sized airborne unit captures Visby airfield. Day two, secure the targets for day one and reinforce the echelons.

When the Polish army arrives day three, direct communication with NATO declaring that any attempt to occupy the Baltic oblasts will have a nuclear response followed by a demonstration of a massive nuclear attack by the Strategic Rocket Forces on the Russian borderland in Novaya Zemlya, the large island North of Murmansk, and in the East Siberian Sea in the Far East.

Then a Kremlin phone call to NATO leadership – what are you gonna do about it?
The peace deal is that Russian forces leave Gotland. That’s it.

Jan Kallberg, Ph.D., LL.M., is a non-resident Senior Fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and a George Washington University faculty member. Follow him at cyberdefense.com and @Cyberdefensecom.

(The text was published by the Center for European Policy Analysis in an edited form – accessible through this link)

Jan Kallberg, Ph.D.: A link collection of my writings about the Russo-Ukrainian War

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Ukraine’s War of the Treelines. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), October 2.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Ukraine War Lesson No. 1 — Chatty Micromanagers Die. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), September 11.

Kallberg, Jan, and Stephen Hamilton. 2023. Command by intent can ensure command post survivability. Defense News (C4ISRNET), August 29.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), August 23.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Junior Officers on the Battlefields of Ukraine. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 26.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. NATO — The Frenemy WithinThe Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), April 11.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Why Russia will loseThe Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 6.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. After the war in Ukraine: cyber revanchism. CyberWire, February 10.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Leader Loss: Russian Junior Officer Casualties. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), December 23.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia’s Imperial Farce. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), December 1.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia’s Aggression Justifies Western Cyber Intervention. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), November 9.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia’s Military – Losing the Will to FightThe Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), September 15.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022.  The West Has Forgotten How to Keep SecretsThe Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), August 8.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Goodbye Vladivostok, Hello Hǎishēnwǎi! The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), July 12.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Defending NATO in the High North. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), July 1.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Drones Will not Liberate Ukraine – but Tanks WillThe Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), June 24.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. A Potemkin Military? Russia’s Over-Estimated LegionsThe Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 6.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia Won’t Play the Cyber Card, YetThe Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 30.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. A troubling silence on Prisoners of WarThe Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 22.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022.  Free War: A strategy for Ukraine to resist Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine? 19FortyFive, March 10.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Too late for Russia to stop the foreign volunteer armyThe Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 10.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022.  An Underground Resistance Movement for UkraineThe Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 7.

NATO: The Growing Alliance and the Insider Risks

The alliance has not properly considered the risks emanating from the half-hearted or hostile within the organization.

During the Cold War, the insider threat to the transatlantic alliance was either infiltration by the Warsaw Pact or some form of theft. The central focus was on counterintelligence and the main enemy was Soviet espionage.  Today, in 2023, the insider threat is not only spies and sabotage; it is any misalignment with the mission, which undermines the mission and its ability to conclude the tasks successfully. Regretfully, that can mean some member states are the issue. This is of course a problem of success. As the alliance grows — Finland’s entry on April 4 making it member state number 31 — was a wonderful moment, reflecting the free choice of a representative democracy to seek the security offered by military alliance with its fellows.
Continue reading NATO: The Growing Alliance and the Insider Risks

My text in CyberWire: After the war in Ukraine: Cyber revanchism.

The original text in CyberWire: “After the war in Ukraine: Cyber revanchism.”

At some point in time, the war in Ukraine will end. How it will end is harder to forecast, but it will end.

Russia has taken a significant beating in the war; even if the Russian forces learned as the war progressed and partly mitigated the worst vulnerabilities, the war was not the intended success story it set out to be. The planned three days until the Ukrainian government collapsed and Ukraine could be absorbed into Russia never happened. Instead, it became a long war that made Russia look incapable, and less than a superpower.

The limited cyber exchanges during the conflict have surprised the cyber community as many expected far more cyber attacks and cyber campaigns to be executed at a time of war. So, will future peace be cyber peace as well? Probably not.
Continue reading My text in CyberWire: After the war in Ukraine: Cyber revanchism.

Russia’s Industry and Economy Can’t Sustain the War Effort

In the industrial age of the mid-20th century, tycoons became tycoons because they saw the big picture and could assess opportunities and risks. During World War II when Sweden stayed neutral, the industrial magnates and brothers Marcus and Jacob Wallenberg ran their businesses while also acting as official trade emissaries. The brothers were well-traveled and understood the fundamental dynamics of world trade and industry. Jacob negotiated with the Germans and Marcus with the Allies.
Continue reading Russia’s Industry and Economy Can’t Sustain the War Effort

Russia’s Imperial Farce

Russia has moved from Soviet-style warfare to self-pitying introspection, but it remains dangerous and must be defeated.

Russia is going to war with Ukraine to defend the Motherland from gay parades. Russia is defending against an onslaught of transgender NATO satanist mercenaries of mixed ethnicity. Russian state television discusses whether it’s best to bomb Berlin first, or more sensible to start with London and then move on to eradicate the rest of Western Europe, thus removing the sources of support for the queer-Nazi government in Kyiv.
Continue reading Russia’s Imperial Farce

The War in Ukraine – Russian officer losses reach strategic impact

For a mobilization effort to create new units that can enter the war and successfully fight, not only are arms, equipment, and soldiers are needed, but a cadre of available experience tactical leaders that can train, forge cohesion, and lead the new units into combat. After over ten months of war in Ukraine, Russian ground forces lost a significant portion of their able tactical leaders – the ground-war company commanders. The company commanders lead the fight at the forward platoons, are close to contact with the enemy, and must be in the forefront to maintain the initiative. The Russian junior officers have been more exposed due to the low motivation of the Russian troops, forcing the officers to be at the edge of the front and lead by example in urban combat, with heightened risks. The Russian mobilization efforts’ strategic impact is doomed to fail as the Russian army runs out of experienced tactical leaders – the company commanders.

Continue reading The War in Ukraine – Russian officer losses reach strategic impact