Category Archives: NATO

Accelerated Warfare, Arctic Warfare, China, National Security, NATO, Russia, Ukraine

Jan Kallberg, Ph.D.: A link collection of my writings about the Russo-Ukrainian War

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Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Ukraine’s War of the Treelines. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), October 2.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Ukraine War Lesson No. 1 — Chatty Micromanagers Die. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), September 11.

Kallberg, Jan, and Stephen Hamilton. 2023. Command by intent can ensure command post survivability. Defense News (C4ISRNET), August 29.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), August 23.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Junior Officers on the Battlefields of Ukraine. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 26.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. NATO — The Frenemy Within. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), April 11.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Why Russia will lose. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 6.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. After the war in Ukraine: cyber revanchism. CyberWire, February 10.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Leader Loss: Russian Junior Officer Casualties. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), December 23.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia’s Imperial Farce. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), December 1.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia’s Aggression Justifies Western Cyber Intervention. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), November 9.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia’s Military – Losing the Will to Fight. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), September 15.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022.  The West Has Forgotten How to Keep Secrets. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), August 8.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Goodbye Vladivostok, Hello Hǎishēnwǎi! The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), July 12.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Defending NATO in the High North. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), July 1.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Drones Will not Liberate Ukraine – but Tanks Will. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), June 24.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. A Potemkin Military? Russia’s Over-Estimated Legions. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 6.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia Won’t Play the Cyber Card, Yet. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 30.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. A troubling silence on Prisoners of War. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 22.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022.  Free War: A strategy for Ukraine to resist Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine? 19FortyFive, March 10.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Too late for Russia to stop the foreign volunteer army. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 10.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022.  An Underground Resistance Movement for Ukraine. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 7.

Cyber Defense, NATO

NATO: The Growing Alliance and the Insider Risks

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The alliance has not properly considered the risks emanating from the half-hearted or hostile within the organization.

During the Cold War, the insider threat to the transatlantic alliance was either infiltration by the Warsaw Pact or some form of theft. The central focus was on counterintelligence and the main enemy was Soviet espionage.  Today, in 2023, the insider threat is not only spies and sabotage; it is any misalignment with the mission, which undermines the mission and its ability to conclude the tasks successfully. Regretfully, that can mean some member states are the issue. This is of course a problem of success. As the alliance grows — Finland’s entry on April 4 making it member state number 31 — was a wonderful moment, reflecting the free choice of a representative democracy to seek the security offered by military alliance with its fellows.
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National Security, NATO, Russia

Russia’s Industry and Economy Can’t Sustain the War Effort

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In the industrial age of the mid-20th century, tycoons became tycoons because they saw the big picture and could assess opportunities and risks. During World War II when Sweden stayed neutral, the industrial magnates and brothers Marcus and Jacob Wallenberg ran their businesses while also acting as official trade emissaries. The brothers were well-traveled and understood the fundamental dynamics of world trade and industry. Jacob negotiated with the Germans and Marcus with the Allies.
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Critical Infrastructure, National Security, NATO

My text in CyberWire: After the war in Ukraine: Cyber revanchism.

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The original text in CyberWire: “After the war in Ukraine: Cyber revanchism.”

At some point in time, the war in Ukraine will end. How it will end is harder to forecast, but it will end.

Russia has taken a significant beating in the war; even if the Russian forces learned as the war progressed and partly mitigated the worst vulnerabilities, the war was not the intended success story it set out to be. The planned three days until the Ukrainian government collapsed and Ukraine could be absorbed into Russia never happened. Instead, it became a long war that made Russia look incapable, and less than a superpower.

The limited cyber exchanges during the conflict have surprised the cyber community as many expected far more cyber attacks and cyber campaigns to be executed at a time of war. So, will future peace be cyber peace as well? Probably not.
Continue reading My text in CyberWire: After the war in Ukraine: Cyber revanchism. →

National Security, NATO

Russia’s Imperial Farce

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Russia has moved from Soviet-style warfare to self-pitying introspection, but it remains dangerous and must be defeated.

Russia is going to war with Ukraine to defend the Motherland from gay parades. Russia is defending against an onslaught of transgender NATO satanist mercenaries of mixed ethnicity. Russian state television discusses whether it’s best to bomb Berlin first, or more sensible to start with London and then move on to eradicate the rest of Western Europe, thus removing the sources of support for the queer-Nazi government in Kyiv.
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National Security, NATO, Will to fight

The War in Ukraine – Russian officer losses reach strategic impact

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For a mobilization effort to create new units that can enter the war and successfully fight, not only are arms, equipment, and soldiers are needed, but a cadre of available experience tactical leaders that can train, forge cohesion, and lead the new units into combat. After over ten months of war in Ukraine, Russian ground forces lost a significant portion of their able tactical leaders – the ground-war company commanders. The company commanders lead the fight at the forward platoons, are close to contact with the enemy, and must be in the forefront to maintain the initiative. The Russian junior officers have been more exposed due to the low motivation of the Russian troops, forcing the officers to be at the edge of the front and lead by example in urban combat, with heightened risks. The Russian mobilization efforts’ strategic impact is doomed to fail as the Russian army runs out of experienced tactical leaders – the company commanders.

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