Monthly Archives: September 2023

Accelerated Warfare, Arctic Warfare, China, National Security, NATO, Russia, Ukraine

Jan Kallberg, Ph.D.: A link collection of my writings about the Russo-Ukrainian War

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Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Ukraine’s War of the Treelines. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), October 2.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Ukraine War Lesson No. 1 — Chatty Micromanagers Die. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), September 11.

Kallberg, Jan, and Stephen Hamilton. 2023. Command by intent can ensure command post survivability. Defense News (C4ISRNET), August 29.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), August 23.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Junior Officers on the Battlefields of Ukraine. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 26.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. NATO — The Frenemy Within. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), April 11.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. Why Russia will lose. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 6.

Kallberg, Jan. 2023. After the war in Ukraine: cyber revanchism. CyberWire, February 10.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Leader Loss: Russian Junior Officer Casualties. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), December 23.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia’s Imperial Farce. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), December 1.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia’s Aggression Justifies Western Cyber Intervention. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), November 9.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia’s Military – Losing the Will to Fight. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), September 15.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022.  The West Has Forgotten How to Keep Secrets. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), August 8.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Goodbye Vladivostok, Hello Hǎishēnwǎi! The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), July 12.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Defending NATO in the High North. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), July 1.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Drones Will not Liberate Ukraine – but Tanks Will. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), June 24.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. A Potemkin Military? Russia’s Over-Estimated Legions. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 6.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Russia Won’t Play the Cyber Card, Yet. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 30.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. A troubling silence on Prisoners of War. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 22.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022.  Free War: A strategy for Ukraine to resist Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine? 19FortyFive, March 10.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022. Too late for Russia to stop the foreign volunteer army. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 10.

Kallberg, Jan. 2022.  An Underground Resistance Movement for Ukraine. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 7.

China, Cyber Strategy, DCO

Hacking Back – The Impact on Norms

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During the last year several op-ed articles and commentaries have proposed that private companies should have the right to strike back if cyber attacked and conduct their own offensive cyber operations.

The demarcation in cyber between the government sphere and the private sphere is important to uphold because it influences how we see the state and the framework in which states interact. One reason why we have a nation state is to, in a uniform and structured way, under the guidance of a representative democracy, deal with foreign hostility and malicious activity. The state is given its powers by the citizenry to protect the nation utilizing a monopoly on violence. The state then acts under the existing laws on behalf of the citizens to ensure the intentions of the population it represents. These powers create an authority that federal government utilizes to enforce compliance of the laws and handle our relations with foreign powers. If the federal government cannot uphold the authority, legitimacy and confidence in government will suffer. The national interest in protecting legitimacy and authority and to maintain the confidence in the federal government is by far stronger than the benefits of a few private entities departing on their own cyber odysseys to retaliate against foreign cyber attacks.

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Interview, Russia, Ukraine

Interview by The Hill

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Ukraine spurs hope of breakthrough on southern front

Jan Kallberg, a non-resident senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said by the winter, Ukraine may be able to hinder supply lines with artillery and create a catastrophe for Russia in Crimea.

“The supply line for the land bridge and the Kerch [Strait] bridge also have to feed the Crimean population, where the Russians want to maintain some sort of normality,” he said. “If their logistics chain starts to crumble … you will see a massive exodus.”

Kallberg explained that could turn Crimea into a “competition between military needs and civilian” resources.

“And Russia doesn’t want that, because it’s very much saying that they’re losing,” he said. “That’s going to be a really tricky equation for the Russian leadership.”

Accelerated Warfare, Artificial Intelligence, Electronic Warfare, Spectrum

Bottom line: Commanders that can’t delegate will not survive in the modern battlefield

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From our article C4ISRNET (Defense News):
“Command by intent can ensure command post survivability”

Link to full text

“In a changing operational environment, where command posts are increasingly vulnerable, intent can serve as a stealth enabler.

A communicated commander’s intent can serve as a way to limit electronic signatures and radio traffic, seeking to obfuscate the existence of a command post. In a mission command-driven environment, communication between command post and units can be reduced. The limited radio and network traffic increases command post survivability.

The intent must explain how the commander seeks to fight the upcoming 12 – 24 hours, with limited interaction between subordinated units and the commander, providing freedom for the units to fulfill their missions. For a commander to deliver intent in a valuable and effective manner, the delivery has to be trained so the leader and the subordinates have a clear picture of what they set out to do.

 

Continue reading Bottom line: Commanders that can’t delegate will not survive in the modern battlefield →

Russia, Ukraine, Will to fight

Australian Broadcasting Corp. interview

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Australian Broadcasting Corporation interviewed me regarding the events unfolding in Southern Ukraine;

“Dr Kallberg believes that Russia is facing other hurdles as well.

“They’re pulling out of storage drawn artillery pieces that, by Western standards, are 1950s, 1960s standard. And they have lost a lot of their ability to do counter battery fire. They have lost artillery radars. And they’re losing artillery at speed,” he said.

And he thinks the change in seasons will further help Ukraine.

“All Russian arrangements will be visible when the leaves fall in October, and the Ukrainians have precision long-range firepower. So the Ukrainians can methodically take out position after position.”

For full article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-04/why-ukraine-counteroffensive-could-be-close-to-major-prize/102801456